0The following chart shows various time cycles on Nifty.
What Happened?
- In 2019, Gann 90 year cycle completed. This cycle comes from 1839 depression followed by 1929 depression.
- In Feb-2020, 20-year cycle completed from Feb 2000 Top
- In Jan-2020, 144-month cycle completed from Top made in Jan-2008 before the 2008 financial crisis.
- In Dec-2019, 3-year cycle completed from Low made in Dec-2016 post-Demonetisation.
So we saw a big fall as major cycles came together.
What next for Nifty?
- In Oct-2020, 144-month cycle from Low made in Oct-2008 during the 2008 financial crisis, will complete
- In Nov-2020, 10-year cycle from Top made in Nov-2010 will complete
- In Dec-2020, 288-month cycle from Low made in Dec-1996 will complete
- In Feb-2020, 60-month cycle from Low made in Feb-2016 will complete
- In Feb-2020, 13-month cycle (it is observed Nifty makes Bottom from Top in 11-13 months) from Top made in Jan-2020 will complete
- In Sep-2021, 20-year cycle from Low made in Sep-2001 will complete
- In Dec-2021, 10-year cycle from Low made in Dec-2011 will complete.
So the probability of bottoms formation as per time cycles is Oct-Dec 2020, Feb 2020, and then Sep-Dec 2021 if the bear market continues for long.
Looking at the possible economic impact of the pandemic, the possibility of Oct-Dec low does not seems feasible; it may be a mid-term low. Only "TIME" will tell!
My Experience:
I was expecting a bottom in 2019 below or nearby Mar-2018 low, due to 90-year cycle completion. When the market started falling after the Corporate tax cut rally, I was almost sure that a low would form in 2019. But it did not happen, and the market went up. I was still bearish on the market and expecting fall. I was expecting a sharp fall but never thought it would be of such magnitude.
So 90-year cycle impact I knew from the past, but experienced the first time and will not be alive to experience again. So knowing something and experiencing something is a quite different phenomenon altogether. That's Big learning!
